Bunny Hill
L2 0.0 taiwan s199-119

A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules for the taxation of certain residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States.

Why China-relevant: United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act ... to provide special rules for the taxation of certain residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States [US-Taiwan tax relief structured around Taiwan's special, cross-strait/China-related diplomatic status]

Sponsor: Crapo, Mike (R-ID) · 48 cosponsors bipartisan

Path to becoming law

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee next step
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead

Legislative timeline — dated actions so far

  1. Filed
Stage: In committee

30% to become law · 73% to clear committee

For context: only ~2% of introduced bills ever become law, so every estimate starts near that baseline — the factors below show what moves this bill above or below the average bill.

  • + Bipartisan support (26/48 cosponsors from across the aisle)
  • + Sponsor chairs a committee the bill was referred to
  • + Unified government (sponsor's party controls House, Senate, and White House)
  • + Sponsor's party controls both chambers
  • − No companion bill in the other chamber

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk low Hawkishness 2

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

Defense / Taiwan positive coarse 6 names

Sector-level estimate — mapped by policy area, not from this bill's specific text.

Top 6 of 6 by market cap

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
2330.TW TSMC
BA Boeing
GD General Dynamics
LMT Lockheed Martin
NOC Northrop Grumman
RTX RTX Corp
Semiconductors mixed coarse 187 names

Sector-level estimate — mapped by policy area, not from this bill's specific text.

Top 10 of 187 by market cap Full roster · Premium

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
TSM 台积电 Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR)
688981.SS 中芯国际 SMIC (STAR) 1260HNS-CMIC
688256.SS 寒武纪 CAMBRICON EntityList
688041.SS 海光信息 HYGON
002371.SZ 北方华创 NAURA EntityList
688347.SS 华虹公司 H-GRACE
688820.SS 盛合晶微 SJ Semi
603986.SS 兆易创新 GigaDevice
688795.SS 摩尔线程-U 摩尔线程-U
688008.SS 澜起科技 Montage Technology
+177 more