Bunny Hill
L1 3.0 tech hr6875-119

AI OVERWATCH Act

Why China-relevant: country of concern means— (A) the People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions ... the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security ... shall require a license for the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of a covered integrated circuit to an entity that is l

Sponsor: Mast, Brian J. (R-FL) · 34 cosponsors bipartisan

Path to becoming law

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee next step
  3. Passed House
  4. Passed Senate
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead

Legislative timeline — dated actions so far

  1. Filed
Stage: In committee

5% to become law · 54% to clear committee

For context: only ~2% of introduced bills ever become law, so every estimate starts near that baseline — the factors below show what moves this bill above or below the average bill.

  • + Sponsor chairs a committee the bill was referred to
  • + Bipartisan support (4/34 cosponsors from across the aisle)
  • + Unified government (sponsor's party controls House, Senate, and White House)
  • + Sponsor's party controls both chambers
  • − No companion bill in the other chamber

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk high Hawkishness 4

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

Semiconductors negative moderate (3/5) precise 187 names

Bars advanced-AI-chip exports to Chinese entities, restricting Chinese AI/semiconductor firms' access to leading-edge compute

Top 10 of 187 by market cap Full roster · Premium

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
TSM 台积电 Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR)
688981.SS 中芯国际 SMIC (STAR) 1260HNS-CMIC
688256.SS 寒武纪 CAMBRICON EntityList
688041.SS 海光信息 HYGON
002371.SZ 北方华创 NAURA EntityList
688347.SS 华虹公司 H-GRACE
688820.SS 盛合晶微 SJ Semi
603986.SS 兆易创新 GigaDevice
688795.SS 摩尔线程-U 摩尔线程-U
688008.SS 澜起科技 Montage Technology
+177 more
China ADRs (Broad) negative modest (2/5) precise 286 names

Restricts Chinese AI/cloud/tech companies' access to advanced compute, pressuring Chinese tech equities

Top 10 of 286 by market cap Full roster · Premium

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
9988.HK 阿里巴巴-W Alibaba Group Holding Limited 1260H
9618.HK 京东集团-SW JD.com, Inc.
9961.HK 携程集团-S Trip.com Group Limited
2057.HK 中通快递-W ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
PDD 拼多多 PDD Holdings (ADR)
9987.HK 百胜中国 Yum China Holdings, Inc.
1179.HK 华住集团-S H World Group Limited
9901.HK 新东方-S NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.
2076.HK BOSS直聘-W KANZHUN LIMITED
9896.HK 名创优品 MINISO Group Holding Limited
+276 more