Bunny Hill
L1 3.0 amendment samdt3178-118

samdt3178-118

Amendment to: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

Why China-relevant: develop coordinated plans and share information on independent plans to impose sanctions and other economic measures against the PRC, as appropriate, if the PRC is found to be involved in-- (1) overthrowing or dismantling the governing institutions in Taiwan

Sponsor: Ricketts, Pete

Timeline

  1. Filed

Vehicle: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead did not advance

Stage: Died in the 118th Congress

Resolved. Model had estimated 66% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsor chairs a committee the bill was referred to
  • − No cosponsors
  • − No companion bill in the other chamber
  • − Sponsor's party does not control both chambers

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk high Hawkishness 4

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

Defense / Taiwan negative strong (4/5) precise 6 names

Coordinated PRC sanctions planning for Taiwan contingencies materially increases geopolitical and sanctions risk premium.

Top 6 of 6 by market cap

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
2330.TW TSMC
BA Boeing
GD General Dynamics
LMT Lockheed Martin
NOC Northrop Grumman
RTX RTX Corp
Semiconductors negative modest (2/5) precise 187 names

Taiwan blockade scenarios directly implicate semiconductor supply-chain risk.

Top 10 of 187 by market cap Full roster · Premium

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
TSM 台积电 Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR)
688981.SS 中芯国际 SMIC (STAR) 1260HNS-CMIC
688256.SS 寒武纪 CAMBRICON EntityList
688041.SS 海光信息 HYGON
002371.SZ 北方华创 NAURA EntityList
688347.SS 华虹公司 H-GRACE
688820.SS 盛合晶微 SJ Semi
603986.SS 兆易创新 GigaDevice
688795.SS 摩尔线程-U 摩尔线程-U
688008.SS 澜起科技 Montage Technology
+177 more