Bunny Hill
L1 3.0 amendment samdt2481-118

samdt2481-118

Amendment to: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

Why China-relevant: SANCTIONS WITH RESPECT TO CHINESE PERSONS RESPONSIBLE FOR CHINA'S ACTIVITIES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA

Sponsor: Rubio, Marco

Timeline

  1. Filed

Vehicle: FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, Senate vehicle)

  1. Introduced
  2. Passed committee
  3. Passed Senate
  4. Passed House
  5. Sent to President
  6. Became law

done next step still ahead did not advance

Stage: Died in the 118th Congress

Resolved. Model had estimated 66% to become law

  • + Is/rides a must-pass vehicle (NDAA or appropriations)
  • + Sponsor chairs a committee the bill was referred to
  • − No cosponsors
  • − No companion bill in the other chamber
  • − Sponsor's party does not control both chambers

Legislative likelihood — a tracking indicator, not investment advice.

Signals — secondary, directional

PRC retaliation risk medium Hawkishness 4

Directional context (see Methodology); the pinned, high-confidence axes are relevance and asset impact.

Shares that might be influenced

Each sector shows a direction (which way its China-related names are pushed) and, for precise mappings, how hard this bill hits the sector — rated marginal → very strong (1–5). Hover any chip for its definition. The headline 0–5 impact is at the top of the card.

Defense / Taiwan positive coarse 6 names

Sector-level estimate — mapped by policy area, not from this bill's specific text.

Top 6 of 6 by market cap

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
2330.TW TSMC
BA Boeing
GD General Dynamics
LMT Lockheed Martin
NOC Northrop Grumman
RTX RTX Corp
China Defense & Aerospace negative coarse 77 names

Sector-level estimate — mapped by policy area, not from this bill's specific text.

Top 10 of 77 by market cap Full roster · Premium

Ticker Name (Local) Name (EN) Restriction Lists
600150.SS 中国船舶 CSSC Holdings
302132.SZ 中航成飞 AVIC CAC 1260H
603268.SS 松发股份 SONGFA
600760.SS 中航沈飞 AVIC SAC 1260HNS-CMIC
600893.SS 航发动力 AECC AP NS-CMIC
600118.SS 中国卫星 China Spacesat 1260HNS-CMIC
002625.SZ 光启技术 KCT
600482.SS 中国动力 CSICPCL NS-CMIC
600879.SS 航天电子 CATEC NS-CMIC
000768.SZ 中航西飞 AVIC XAC 1260HNS-CMIC
+67 more